According to a new report by the IEA-PVPS, by the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of solar photovoltaics in Japan will reach 78.4GW. By the end of 2023, the cumulative capacity of the Japanese market may reach 90GW.

Among all new installed capacity this year, large-scale solar energy projects are 2.5GW-3GW, and the rest are rooftop solar panel, especially industrial and commercial power generation systems.

The reasons for the low realization rate of large-scale projects include: 1. There is no mandatory project completion timetable; 2. The uncertainty of future FIT and developers expect the system cost to continue to decline; 3. Obtaining land use rights and converting agricultural land to industrial land 4. Due to the limited capacity of the grid, the resistance of the grid company increases.

Analysts predict that Japan's new photovoltaic capacity will be around 5GW-6GW in 2022 and 2023, and the market share between centralized and distributed projects will not change significantly.

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, recently the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA) are jointly formulating new rules to support the development of rooftop solar energy system in the Japanese capital.

The authorities plan to introduce new mandatory PV requirements for new buildings and dwellings from 2025. The city government first announced plans for a mandatory solar requirement in early September this year. Currently, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly is still discussing the plans.

The new rules, if approved, could apply to new dwellings with a roof area of more than 20 square meters and buildings with a total roof area of less than 2,000 square meters. The new rules could also require businesses to install solar panels on 30 percent of their roof area. Some parts of Tokyo may face a requirement that 85% of their roofs be covered with photovoltaics.